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Sunday, May 29, 2011

Travel-alert fatigue warning! Yawn, whatever

IN April the U.S. State Department issued nine travel warnings against traveling to places like Iraq, Syria and Mexico, and other states have followed suit. (On Syria, both the Americans and British advised citizens to leave the country because of the violent clashes between state forces and demonstrators.) After the killing of Osama bin Laden, a global travel warning was issued.
Most travelers apparently couldn't care less. A Minneapolis company, Travel Leaders, conducted a poll which shows that few travelers pay any heed to such warnings. Even fewer would consider changing their travel plans because of them.
Of the sample of Americans questioned, 14 percent said a State Department warning would have no effect at all on their travel plans and another 20 percent said it would have very little effect. Less than 18 percent of those asked said they would alter their travel plans in response to such warnings. The remaining 47 percent said they would take note the warnings, but would not cancel plans because of them.

COMMENT: According to many experts, ignoring these general travel warnings is part of screening out non-specific data from the torrents of information flowing over your eyes and ears in the modern world. Neither is a modern phenomenon – the ancient story of the boy who cried wolf so many times that his community ignored him is pertinent here. Had the boy issued occasional specific warnings like "we have information three wolves are plotting to attack sheep pen number six tonight," the farmers would have secured the pen and set up an ambush."
If the weather bureau declares that a tornado or hurricane is likely to strike a specific region between certain hours, it would take a foolhardy traveler to venture into the danger zone. But when travel warnings such as, "there are bad guys out there who could attack Western targets" are issued, it's not surprising they have the same impact as, "hey guys, there are wolves in the hills," repeated (say) nine times a month.
Yes, wolves do attack sheep, so the boy was sometimes correct – but in the same way a stopped clock is right twice a day. Yes, fundamentalist terrorists do attack Western targets – September 11, 2001; Madrid trains (2004); London subway (2005); the city of Mumbai (2008); Moscow subway (January 2011); Marrakech market, Morocco (April 2011). So travel warnings may have been valid – but again, think of the correct stopped clock.
If a law falls into disrepute by being widely ignored, it is time to change the law. If travel warnings are being ignored because they have become meaningless, perhaps they should be abandoned entirely, until they can be made at least as believable as severe weather warnings.

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