Mideast: Did anyone say 'domino?'
COMMENT: A summary of what's going on where in the Middle East:
Bahrain:
The revolutionary successes in Tunisia and Egypt has brought new fire to the long-simmering resentment of the Shiite majority against the ruling Sunni and absolutist Al-Khalifa royal family. There have long been demonstrations on the island but protesters are now demanding a new constitution. Bahrain security forces have shown particular brutality in confronting, killing and injuring demonstrators and attacking media reporters. Reports of Iran financing the Shi'ite mobilization in Bahrain probably amount to two plus two being made to equal five - Iran has protest problems of its own right now.
Iran:
Iran is not an Arab country so the extent to which its opposition forces have quickly drawn strength from the revolution in Egypt has surprised many people - including the government. Tens of thousands were quickly on the streets and a hasty (but ineffectual) vote in the Iranian parliament to prosecute Green Movement leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mahdi Karroubi and former President Mohammad Khatami did more to put the regime's anxiety on display than effect any action. The Green Movement had greater strength than most opposition movements in the Arab states, but sustaining momentum and gaining traction in the vast and tightly controlled Islamic state has always been a problem for the demonstrators.
Yemen:
There have been daily protests in a country torn by many issues - rampant poverty, unemployment, gross corruption, a very active al-Qaida presence, and an deeply unpopular ruler, who's held onto power almost as long as Egypt's Hosni Mubarak. There is a iron security presence in Sana'a but that is no guarantee that the demonstrations can be controlled.
Libya
Anti-regime demonstrators in Libya face well-organized pro-government counter-demonstrations. These are based on Muammar Gaddafi's long-standing that Libya is a socialist people's republic and the people can't oppose themselves. This week’s demonstrations were the first display of defiance in Libya and the anti-government activists have been using social networking sites to rally support for protests on what they are describing as a “day of anger”. But in Green Square in the center of the Tripoli, a pro-government rally was already in progress Thursday morning with demonstrators shouting: “We are defending Gaddafi and the revolution!” and “The revolution continues!” There were reports of clashes in two cities late on Wednesday, with about four people reported dead in the eastern city of al-Bayda. Dozens of people were injured in continuing violent demonstrations on Wednesday night in the eastern city of Benghazi.
Algeria
Algeria will continue to have demonstrations, but the demonstrators know well they will face brutal repression, which has always been the regime's answer to any dissent. At present it is hard to see how they could lead a revolution to success, unless cracks appear in the security forces - still considered most unlikely.
Saudi Arabia
For now, we continue to suggest that the sprawling Saudi Royal family can continue to buy their way out of trouble. We also have reports of Saudi security forces operating in Bahrain to help suppress the Shiite revolt there, which, if successful could inspire similar dissent in eastern Saudi Arabia just across the causeway to Bahrain island.
Jordan
We're just holding our breath...
Labels: algeria, bahrain, jordan, libya, mideast, saudiarabia

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