The leaving of Libya (or trying to)

AMERICAN efforts to evacuate hundreds of stranded residents from Libya are being held up by bad weather and by the refusal of the embattled Gadaffi government to allow U.S. charter planes to land. Around 285 people have been sitting on the Maria Dolores, a chartered ferry, since Wednesday. The crew is waiting for stormy and rising seas to calm before the ship can sail, probably over the weekend, the operator informed us. *
Violent clashes between revolutionaries and security forces continue throughout western Libya, including in Tripoli. Most of eastern Libya, centered on Benghazi, is in the hands of the rebels and deserters from Gadaffi's army and the region is tense but quiet. Spontaneous demonstrations, violence, and looting are likely to continue throughout the next several days.

* Later news: The Virtu Ferries ship Maria Dolores left As-shahab port, Tripoli, at 1.37 p.m. local time on Friday, February 25, heading for Valetta, Malta, an 8-hour voyage. The ship was initially carrying 285 people - 167 Americans and 118 of other nationalities - but more passengers boarded before departure. (We were unable to ascertain the exact number).

COMMENT: Libya is not Tunisia or Egypt and the rebellion there could lead not only to a change of dictator but also to a change of regime - or even two regimes, and a consequent civil war. Egypt and Tunisia have strong establishment pillars, mainly the army, holding the states firm while they restructure themselves. Libya's Gadaffi has left his country deliberately unstructured with a government as rambling and incoherent as his speeches and the military weak and divided.
There is no solid institution ready to step in and keep order while the people reorganise the country. In any ensuing chaos, we have an ideal breeding ground for Islamic terrorism and conflict - more like Iraq in the post-war period, or Somalia, than Egypt. Raids on the arms depots in eastern Libya follow a pattern similar to Iraq when the army there collapsed.
This state produces valuable low-sulphur crude, and chaos is not good for the oil business. Armed fundamentalists roaming the streets, fomenting an already brewing tribal civil war - and attacking foreign oil companies, diplomatic missions and businesses - it's not impossible in Libya.
Perhaps we should give the Libyan people more credit and label this as a still remote possibility - but the jitters on the oil and stock markets suggest that fears of the dark side are on everyone's mind.