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Monday, February 14, 2011

Egypt: Can the army be trusted to deliver?

ANALYSIS: Finally, on Friday, February 11, 2011, battered by vociferous demands to quit, Hosni Mubarak left Cairo for his vacation home in Sharm al-Sheikh. He left the announcement of his resignation to his deputy, Omar Suleiman, and passed authority to a council of military leaders (significantly, not to Sulieman).
The military now faces pressure to deliver a blueprint for this interim period, including an end to 30 years of emergency law, and a committee to develop constitutional reforms, before the elections currently scheduled in six months.
The open question now is whether the military will indeed cede power to a civilian democracy and surrender the vast privileges it acquired in the ancient regime. Already the young revolutionaries have cast wary and suspicious eyes on the army's activities.
Meanwhile, Egypt’s previously minuscule political opposition groups must evolve quickly enough to field election candidates with the vision and capabilities to govern the country. Egypt’s current status is generating much anxiety among its neighbors and allies, while its people take some time out to savour their sweet, long-overdue victory.
But, realistically, confrontations between troops and protesters could easily become a new flashpoint, opening uncertain routes into uncharted revoutionary territory.
The military may think that with Mubarak out, stability is the priority. But some of the protesters think not enough has been done yet and they harbor a deep suspicion that the army could have played them - posing as an ally while plotting its own agenda.
"We simply won't clear this square until the army delivers a civilian government," one demonstrator told reporters.
Egypt's Supreme Council of Armed Forces said it would remain in charge of the country for six months. The military has dissolved parliament and suspended the constitution. It could easily stop there and crack down on any further revolutionary action.
At minimum, it is quite clear that power now rests entirely with the military, and an ominous omission from their announcements so far has been any repeal of the hated emergency laws, as demanded by the revolutionaries.

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