GlobalSource Country Risk Alerts

Top business intelligence analysts at your blogging service

Sunday, February 07, 2010

Standard & Poor's say UK banks suck

NEW YORK - STANDARD & POOR’S have issued a report stating: " We no longer classify the United Kingdom among the most stable and low-risk banking systems globally."
American Banking News comments, "That’s a nice way of saying the British banking system sucks."
The report, titled "Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: United Kingdom," says that the basis of the problem is an extremely poor British economy, which will undermine the credit profile of British banking.
The report cites "the country’s weak economic environment, the reputational damage we believe has been experienced by the banking industry, and what we see as the high dependence on state-support programs of a significant proportion of the industry."
COMMENT: The British has banking system for long been considered among the most low-risk and reliable in the world. But other recent data show the "recovery" in Britain came at a growth rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling has been under increasing criticism for the $1.62 trillion the government gave to the UK banking industry. He insists that the plan he has in place will bring "the fastest deficit reduction plan of major economies."
This seems unlikely to reassure the British people about their economic prospects for the next few years - a plan to reduce their deficit quicker than similar economies is unlikely to stir any excitement any time soon.

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Friday, January 22, 2010

Violence disrupts Sri Lanka campaign

COLOMBO - ELECTION-related violence threatens to disrupt Sri Lanka's first poll since the defeat of the Tamil Tiger rebels after decades of war. On Jan. 22, the main opposition group blamed incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa's supporters for an attack on the house of Tiran Alles, a businessman and a close aide to the main opposition presidential candidate, former army chief Sarath Fonseka. No one was injured in the attack, but Alles' car was destroyed and home damaged.

The government denied it was involved, saying the attack was aimed at disrupting and discrediting this Tuesday's vote, in which Rajapaksa and Fonseka are locked in a bitter and close race. Both men are at the height of their popularity for their role in crushing the Tamil Tigers in May and ending the rebel's 25-year armed campaign for an independent state for the ethnic Tamil minority. Some 80,000-100,000 people were killed in the conflict.

COMMENT: There have been five murders and 78 assaults during the two-month campaign period, according to the independent Center for Monitoring Election Violence. This has prompted U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to call on all sides to refrain from violence.
The U.S. Embassy and the country's influential Buddhist monks have also called for restraint. Last week a bus carrying Fonseka's supporters was sprayed with gunfire by unidentified assailants, killing a woman and wounding nine others. A grenade blast at the house of a government minister killed his driver in another incident.

Rights groups have accused the government of using state resources to secure Rajapaksa's re-election. Reporters Without Borders said Thursday that Fonseka is getting almost no air time on state media. It also accused the telecommunications regulator of ordering mobile phone operators to issue text messages on behalf of the president.

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Sunday, October 11, 2009

Turkey dumps Israel from joint air exercises

JERUSALEM - TURKEY'S joint annual aerial exercises, codenamed "Anatolian Eagle" has been postponed after Ankara excluded Israel from taking part, military sources in Israel and Turkey say.
"The exercise Anatolian Eagle which was planned to take place in Turkey from October 12 to 23 has been postponed until further notice," the Israeli military said in a statement.
"The exercise has been postponed as a result of Turkey's decision to change the list of participating countries, thus excluding Israel. This decision came several days before the start of the exercise."
The exercise was to involve Turkish, Israeli and several other NATO air forces.
The United States also pulled out when Turkey excluded Israel. This year's manoeuvres were to include practicing aerial attacks in Turkish airspace near borders with Syria, Iraq and Iran, military sources said.

COMMENT: This development is a new low in relations between Israel and Turkey, which have been sliding since Israel's war in Gaza at the start of the year, despite Israel's attempt to brush it off. Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said: "Turkey was and remains a very important strategic anchor in the Middle East and its relations with Israel serve the interests of the entire region."
In early September, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu cancelled a visit to Israel over a refusal to let him visit the Hamas-run Gaza Strip. Turkey has been Israel's principal ally in the region. They have had close economic ties since reaching a military cooperation agreement in 1996. They have regularly participated in joint military exercises.

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Sunday, August 30, 2009

Americans trust Obama to fix economy

AMERICANS retain confidence that the Obama White House and administration will do what is right for the economy. However, the level confidence has been on a downward trend over the past few months, according to the latest Harris Poll.
COMMENT: More than half of Americans (53 percent) polled in August are confident that the White House will produce policies to help fix the economic crisis, and just under half (47 percent) are not confident. In April, 57 percent of Americans were confident and in May, 55 percent were confident so there is a steady downward movement in this confidence level.
When it comes to trusting political figures to do what is right on the economy, three in five Americans (61 percent) trust President Obama to do what is right and over half (54 percent) trust the president’s economic advisors. Members of Congress do not fare as well as over half (55 percent) do not trust Democrats in Congress to do what is right for the American economy and two-thirds (67 percent) do not trust Republicans in Congress.
When it comes to blame for the country’s economic problems large majorities of Americans place the blame on Republicans in Congress (85 percent), former President George W. Bush (83 percent) and Democrats in Congress (75 percent). In fact, over half of U.S. adults (52 percent) place a great deal of blame on President Bush for the country’s economic problems.

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Thursday, June 25, 2009

More clashes taking place in Tehran

OMID Habibinia, an Iranian journalist living in Switzerland, reports on his Twitter feed that he is hearing from sources in Tehran that more clashes were taking place on Thursday (June 25), as opposition supporters attempt to rally. Habibinia writes, inter alia:
  • Anti-Riot Police get position in Vali Asr Cr and Enghelab St.
  • Clashes at Enghalb Sq. 16 minutes ago
  • Reports: More than 1000 ppl chanting against regime asking others join then near Taleghani Cr.
  • Hezbollah attacking passengers at Enghelab St. Avoiding to gathter in one place…
  • Army helicopters flying over protesters at Enghelab Sq.
  • Somebody wrote me: "I will be in demo soon, if I shoot dead please pay for “bullets fee” and take my body out!
  • Reports: Some people arrested at Vali Aasr Sq.
  • Anti-Riot police making blockage at Azadi St, Jamalzadeh Junc.
COMMENT: In the days following the election on June 12, millions of Iranian citizens organized and poured into the streets. The regime was intent on showing an iron fist. The Basij, the most loyal anti-riot armed force of the Islamic Republic, opened fire on the protesters. Several hundred high- and middle-ranking political leaders were arrested. Activists' means of communication, including cellphones, instant messaging and many Web sites were shut down. So were election headquarters throughout the country. When resistance continued, the armed Basij started attacking homes and making arrests in the middle of the night. Official prisons quickly filled. In order to detain more people, the regime started to use unofficial prisons, such as the basement of the Interior Ministry.
Iranians haveresponded to all this massive physical and psychological warfare with a determination not seen since the 1979 revolution. Mass demonstrations began spontaneously outside the capital and in other cities and urban centers, forcing some of the deployed Basij to return to their home bases.
Divisions appearing within Revolutionary Guard units are most troubling for the regime. There are reports that the chief of the Tehran unit, Ali Fazli, is now under arrest. Other reports point to a rebellion brewing within Revolutionary Guards forces in Lavizan, northeast of Tehran. At least one report claimed that 16 leading Guard members were arrested for refusing to shoot protesters.
Now, a general strike is brewing. The national mourning for vicxtims will be the focus of the revolutionaries for the next few days. Then, a new countrywide challenge to the regime will take center stage. The revolution's main problem is lack of communication with its leadership. As such, progress is slow and the course will undoubtedly be protracted.
The coming weeks will test the regime's power. Another coup from within may be the shortest and least violent way to end the Islamic Republic. In any case, the revolution will likely go on.

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